Decision Trees and Scenarios
Ages 16–18Difficulty adapts to you
Decision Trees and Scenarios
List possible decisions, outcomes, probabilities, and payoffs. Calculate expected value where the probabilities are credible, then test how the recommendation changes under optimistic, central, and cautious assumptions.
Your goals
- ✓You can compare uncertain choices using probabilities, costs, benefits, and sensitivity checks.
- ✓You can use Decision Trees and Scenarios, model correctly.
- ✓You can use the definitions, units, assumptions, and examples to check your answer.
Words to know
- Decision Trees and Scenarios:
- Compare uncertain choices using probabilities, costs, benefits, and sensitivity checks.
- model:
- A rule or representation used to describe a situation and make a prediction.
Examples
- 1A decision tree can compare a guaranteed ₦50,000 with a 60% chance of ₦100,000 and a 40% chance of ₦0; both have expected value ₦50,000, but different risk.
- 2Change one assumption at a time to find which input matters most.
Check these
- • Do not skip the meaning of a term or give a result without explaining what it means.
- • Keep every number, symbol, label, and unit in its correct place.
- • Show enough working to check how you reached your answer.
Helpful habits
- • Read the whole question before choosing what to do.
- • Show one clear step at a time and check each step.
- • If you are stuck, draw a model, try smaller numbers, or revisit the example.
Now try your own
Create your own decision trees and scenarios example, solve it, and explain how you checked it.
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